Green Matters – October 26, 2020

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greenmatters

Insights for the conscious investor.

October 26th, 2020

Solutions: Don’t doubt human ingenuity.

  • Humanity is stuck in short-term thinking. Here’s how we escape. (mit)

  • Is tech the solution to a planet in peril? (triplepundit)

  • Could biological batteries from the ground be our next source of renewable energy? (fastcompany)

  • Four-day work week is a necessary part of human progress – here’s a plan to make it happen (theconversation)

  • Focusing on rivers could prevent 90% of ocean plastic (cnn)

 

Markets & Economy: Make the irrational, rational. 

  • Epic S&P 500 rally is powered by assets you can’t see or touch (msm)

  • Investors may need to become more comfortable with volatility in their portfolios (awealthofcommonsense)

  • Economic downturn? These sectors are innovating climate solutions. And they’re thriving. (grist

  • Climate, not elections, will move markets soon (bloomberg)

  • US (65%) lagging rest of the world in adopting ESG investment strategies (94% – Europe, 89% – Canada, 72% – Asia) (forbes

 

Crypto & Digital Currency: A digital revolution. 

  • PayPal to allow cryptocurrency buying, selling and shopping on its network (reuters

  • China’s digital yuan tests leap forward in Shenzhen (techcrunch)

  • Commodities Chairman Heath Tarbert talks ethereum, defi and the next bitmex (coindesk)

  • Bitcoin investment thesis; Bitcoin’s role as an alternative investment (fidelity)

  • Fed’s Powell: More important for U.S. to get digital currency right than be first (investing)

 

Robots & AI: Oh My!

  • Defense official calls Artificial Intelligence the new oil (defense.gov)

  • Artificial Intelligence: By 2070, robotic judges will analyze body language to pin guilt (dailyalts)

  • The deepfake apocalypse never came. But cheapfakes are everywhere. (mashable)

  • Machines to ‘do half of all work tasks by 2025’ (bbc)

  • Robots encroach on up to 800 million jobs around the world (bloomberg)

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About this newsletter:
This newsletter is curated by professional financial advisors, wealth managers and market researchers at Willow Investments for Loving Change. We sift through the daily noise to find nuggets of emerging trends and developments in our ever-changing world, focusing on the intersection of capitalism, consciousness and social & environmental justice. How these worlds converge directs the course of our future. One way we can make loving change is to share what we are discovering. www.investwithwillow.com
 
          

Disclaimer: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This newsletter is for general informational purposes only. All information is provided in good faith, however we make no guarantee regarding the accuracy of any information contained herein. Please review our Privacy Policy, Disclaimer and Terms of Use & Conditions for more information. 

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Green Matters – October 19, 2020

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greenmatters

Insights for the conscious investor.

October 19th, 2020

Sustainable Investing: Align your dollars with the rest of your life.

  • Sustainable investing is changing the world faster than you think (barrons)

  • The case for impact investing in public equities (blackrock)

  • No such thing as “passive investing” (marketwatch)

  • How to measure a company’s real impact (hbr)

 

Trends by Generation: History is seasonal. 

  • NextGen Chamber of Commerce roundtable calls for a new kind of capitalism  (yahoomoney)

  • Teens are buying fewer clothes, less food as their spending hits two-decade low (cnbc)

  • Millennials control just 4.2 percent of US wealth, 4 times poorer than Baby Boomers were at age 34 (newsweek

 

Tech & Innovation: Unlimited possibility; the good, the bad, the transformative. 

  • Is technology actually making things better? (pairagraph)

  • First there were boomtowns, now there are Zoomtowns (fastcompany)

  • Digital transformation (DX) – the fourth Industrial Revolution? (techzooka)

  • How many jobs do robots really replace? (MIT

  • Yesterday’s anti-trust laws were not built to rein in today’s technology platforms (stratechery)

 

Markets & Economy: The dismal science. 

  • 5 biggest startup trends for 2021 (thestartup)

  • House prices vs national average wage index (calculatedrisk)

  • Is your risk formula capturing the full picture? (sustainablebrands)

  • America’s Main Street revival goes into reverse, cutting a small-town lifeline (WSJ)

 

Carbon, Climate, and the Environment: The not so silent crisis. 

  • Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA (carbonbrief

  • Wind and solar supply more than 50 pct of Australia’s main grid for first time (reneweconomy

  • The Amazon rainforest is near a survival tipping point (fastcompany)

  • New data shows climate risk is rising among executives’ biggest concerns (greenbiz)

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About this newsletter:
This newsletter is curated by professional financial advisors, wealth managers and market researchers at Willow Investments for Loving Change. We sift through the daily noise to find nuggets of emerging trends and developments in our ever-changing world, focusing on the intersection of capitalism, consciousness and social & environmental justice. How these worlds converge directs the course of our future. One way we can make loving change is to share what we are discovering. www.investwithwillow.com
 
          

Disclaimer: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This newsletter is for general informational purposes only. All information is provided in good faith, however we make no guarantee regarding the accuracy of any information contained herein. Please review our Privacy Policy, Disclaimer and Terms of Use & Conditions for more information. 

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Green Matters – October 12, 2020

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greenmatters

Insights for the conscious investor.

October 12th, 2020

Solutions: Don’t doubt human ingenuity.

  • Now is the time for big infrastructure projects, says the IMF (theguardian)

  • 6 lessons on how to scale sustainably (fastcompany)

  • How scientists are making sure fires don’t wipe out forests forever (fastcompany)

  • How to save a planet (BBGM podcast: the future we want) (gimletmedia)

  • Now streaming on Netflix: “the key to combating climate change” (kissthegroundmovie)

 

Markets & Economy: The dismal science. 

  • Here’s what IPO euphoria actually looks like (we aren’t there yet) (reformedbroker)

  • Consolidation continues: big companies are starting to swallow the world (NYT

  • IPO fever: a record breaking year for initial public offerings, with Kathleen Smith (Renaissance Capital) and Jay Heller (Nasdaq) (thecompoundshow)

  • How the digital surge will reshape finance (economist)

  • Stashing cash in a low-interest world: many wonder where to find the best place for their savings (WSJ)

 

Social Justice, Diversity, & Ethics: No more tradeoffs.

  • Meet the female leaders from 100 brands and businesses, all fighting for a better future (entrepreneur)

  • 1 in 4 women considering a career step-back due to increased home responsibilities from COVID (quartz)

  • How to invest in businesses that will exit faster for double the returns? Invest in women (women2)

  • How tech company culture drives women away (venturebeat)

 

Crypto & Digital Currency: A digital revolution. 

  • SEC chair: perhaps all stocks could become blockchain tokens (ledgerinsights)

  • Novel insights into the state of the cryptoasset industry (UoCambridge)

  • European Central Bank must prepare to issue a digital euro (reuters)

  • China’s digital yuan tests leap forward in Shenzhen (techcrunch)
  • Fiat winter is coming? (efficientfrontier)

  • Square puts $50 million in bitcoin on crypto ‘empowerment’ bet (bloomberg)

  • As 60:40 strategy falters, could bitcoin be an alternative? (dailyalts)

  • Forgive and be free (aeon)

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About this newsletter:
This newsletter is curated by professional financial advisors, wealth managers and market researchers at Willow Investments for Loving Change. We sift through the daily noise to find nuggets of emerging trends and developments in our ever-changing world, focusing on the intersection of capitalism, consciousness and social & environmental justice. How these worlds converge directs the course of our future. One way we can make loving change is to share what we are discovering. www.investwithwillow.com
 
          

Disclaimer: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This newsletter is for general informational purposes only. All information is provided in good faith, however we make no guarantee regarding the accuracy of any information contained herein. Please review our Privacy Policy, Disclaimer and Terms of Use & Conditions for more information. 

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Willow Risk Monitor – October 2020

The Willow Risk Monitor July 2020
Willow Risk Monitor October 2020

Welcome to the October 2020 overview edition of the Willow Risk Monitor, where we share our analysis of the level of risk in the current market across a variety of metrics. We also explain our thinking on how we look at and assess overall market risk, and we will often highlight what the data shows compared to what you might be hearing in the news.

At Willow, risk management is one of our key influencers in creating portfolio strategies for our clients. We hope this gives a peek into our investment management window.

Consumer Health (proprietary algorithm)

Coming off the forced shut down, high wage earners (those making over $60k/yr) employment levels are almost back to pre-COVID levels (-12% to -1%, from April to September) while low wage workers (those making under $27k/yr)  have only recovered half as much (-36% to -16%, from April to September). Arguably this cohort has less spending power, so even though the facts on the ground are sobering the economic impact is lessened. Unemployment claims have leveled off in the 800k range (which is still round 4x the average). But consumer sentiment, expectations, and spending have been rising steadily, home sales have been strong, and productivity has jumped – all positive tail winds. 

Risk Assessment: Medium/Low

Manufacturing Health (proprietary algorithm)
how we look at manufacturing

Our manufacturing health index is back to pre-covid levels, but we still reserve some caution here. Forced shutdowns in the manufacturing sector have been generally lifted so numbers should continue to come in strong in response as pent up demand releases.  Many manufacturing based indicators are at or above pre-COVID levels (business confidence, durable goods, and most regional manufacturing indices), industrial production has lagged but new orders continue to rise.

Risk Assessment: Low

Market Volatility (proprietary algorithm)

Volatility (the implied forward-looking move in markets) bottomed out in August and has slowly been creeping back up. This is most likely due to election jitters. 

Risk Assessment: Medium

Credit Default Swaps
how we look at CDS

Credit default swap spread have been rising. This is worth paying attention to as it signals that credit protection is getting more expensive. This happens when the perception shifts to believe that the underlying companies are more risky, more likely to default, or more likely to not meet their debt obligations going forward. While not extraordinarily high, levels have been rising since August and have yet to return to pre-2020 levels.

Risk Assessment: Medium

Bond Spreads
how we look at bonds

Corporate bond spreads have been widening slightly. Most notable are the moves in A rated and BB rated corporate bonds which have pushed the average spread higher. Again, the higher the spreads the higher perceived risk in the underlying companies issuing the bonds. As these are investment grades that have their spreads widening it is worth noting. One reason could be the recent uptick in furloughs and layoffs.

Risk Assessment: Medium/Low

As always, be well and please feel free to reach out with any questions, comments or concerns.

Best regards,

The Willow Team
+1 413 236 2980

ADCM, LLC dba Willow does not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction. Although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.  Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities.  

Green Matters – October 5, 2020

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greenmatters

Insights for the conscious investor.

October 5th, 2020

Corporate Social & Environmental Responsibility: It’s time to step up. 

  • New survey shows 87% of Americans believe people can be effective when they act together to change companies’ behavior (fortune)

  • 50 of the 100 companies most systemically responsible for global industrial emissions have set targets for net-zero (triple pundit)

  • New SEC rule blocks advocacy proposals from most small & medium shareholders (ceres)

  • New report from Test of Corporate Purpose shows companies signing pledges aren’t walking their talk (valuewalk)

  • Video: is this the great reset of capitalism? (yahoofinance)

 

Carbon, Climate, and the Environment: The not so silent crisis. 

  • Companies with lowest carbon intensity outperform their peers (just)

  • Most partisan polling group ever assembled says climate change not a partisan issue (wattsupwiththat)

  • How much will the planet warm if carbon dioxide levels double? (nyt)

  • Maybe it’s not all the fault of the individual after all (grist)

 

Small Business: The life blood of our economy. 

  • Applications for new businesses rising at the fastest rate since 2007 (wsj)

  • Almost 40% of furloughed employees have returned to work, but 29% have come back to fewer hours or lower wage (usatoday)

  • New York bankruptcies reportedly surge 40% during pandemic (CNBC)

 

Social Justice, Diversity, & Ethics: No more tradeoffs.

  • More than 250 companies take action to advance women’s leadership and equality (unglobalcompact)

  • Five common misconceptions about workplace diversity (forbes)

  • Key factors driving diverse and inclusive workplace (refinitiv

 

Odd Lots: A little bit of this, a little bit of that, a little bit of oh that’s interesting… 

  • Are your takeout containers recyclable? (3blmedia)

  • Honing the ability to withstand fear and uncertainty (forbes)

  • Food wrappers just passed cigarette butts as most common beach trash (fast company)

  • Forgive and be free (aeon)

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About this newsletter:
This newsletter is curated by professional financial advisors, wealth managers and market researchers at Willow Investments for Loving Change. We sift through the daily noise to find nuggets of emerging trends and developments in our ever-changing world, focusing on the intersection of capitalism, consciousness and social & environmental justice. How these worlds converge directs the course of our future. One way we can make loving change is to share what we are discovering. www.investwithwillow.com
 
          

Disclaimer: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This newsletter is for general informational purposes only. All information is provided in good faith, however we make no guarantee regarding the accuracy of any information contained herein. Please review our Privacy Policy, Disclaimer and Terms of Use & Conditions for more information. 

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Market Update October 2020

Paul and Alexandra discuss markets Oct 2020

October 2020

Happy Autumn!  Alexandra and Paul have an update on the market and economy, especially in light of election volatility. In this video for Willow clients, Alexandra and Paul share highlights, analysis and outlook of market risk indicators and economic conditions as well as our leading themes that influence our investment strategy.

Play Video

Market Update Summary (Oct 2020):

  • We are predicting near-term downward movement in the markets as we look at some technical indicators such as support lines, a possible double top and the uncertainty around the upcoming presidential elections.
  • The tech space has done very well and still looks okay in many places, we think it is overvalued at the moment and not the right time to be infusing capital right now.
  • We continue to point out that only a few companies, mostly in the tech space, are lifting the entire market. This is not a healthy sign for the market as a whole when so few companies are doing well.
  • Because of these factors, our current strategy is a pause / wait and see before we make any major entries or take major positions.
  • Willow’s Future Theme #1: We see the US dollar eventually loses the spot of reserve currency. As crude oil dependence, which is tied to the US dollar, and as continues to diminish over time, and as the US is now less than 30% of GDP, we think in the future the US dollar will not be the dominant currency. This trend accelerates as our monetary system continues to create and infuse more dollars into the economy, and as we accumulate more debt as a country. While we still have a while for this theme to play out, as investors, we are paying attention to the emerging digital currencies space as well as precious metals like gold.
  • Willow’s Future Theme #2: Inverse stagflation means wages continue to stay stagnant while the price of things we need continues to rise. This feeds on the widening wealth gap in our country and ultimately creates an environment where consumer spending is impacted, which significantly impacts our overall economy. Small business feels this crunch most directly. This influences our strategy of keeping some exposure in the markets to gain enough growth to balance the diminishing value of a conservative/cash-based portfolio.
  • Willow’s Future Theme #3: Farmland + Water are resources we believe will become more and more valuable in the future. Climate change, water misuse and even consumer shifts to mainstream organic food consumption and the main drivers of this theme. As investors, we keep active exposure in water infrastructure and farmland.  Our upcoming edition of Green Matters has a link to a great movie about regenerative agriculture and its role as a possible solution to climate change.
  • The data continues to show that companies who are paying attention to environmental and social impacts (water usage, as an example) do have higher profit margins.  Our proprietary ESG screen confirm this over and over again across a variety of social & environmental metrics, and we are able to pass these findings onto our clients through our targeted investment selections.
  • A bit more on elections: One of our key indicators of market volatility is spiking more leading up to this election than it has leading up to previous elections. This tells us this election is causing some uncertainty in the markets and a clear winner isn’t obvious yet.  Markets don’t respond well to uncertainty, so we suspect we will see continued volatility and downward momentum until some certainty is reached. 

As always, we are diligently tracking current market conditions and future economic outlooks so we can position our clients as strategically as possible. We encourage everyone to do your best to reduce stress over this next month approaching elections. Take loving care of yourself – perhaps a walk in this beautiful autumn weather would be a perfect remedy.

To set up a meeting to discuss your portfolio, please click here or give us a call.

Best regards,

The Willow Team
+1 413 236 2980