I have long been a critic of easy money for a number of reasons. For one, it masks inept management. Second, it lowers the standard of living by creating greater gaps between those who have and those who do not. Third, it encourages reckless spending and debt.

Today, I will address reason number one – masking inept management. Easy money tempts companies to take on undue risk and often paints over management that is not prudent, careless, unsystematic, often greedy, and, I daresay, unethical. The case in point today is the executives from Silicon Valley Bank. If this were the first time in my career that I have seen such shenanigans, I would say it was a one-off situation, but I am sad to say it is not. This is the FOURTH time in my 36 years in this industry that I have seen such foolishness! Let me enlighten you on some history since my first entrance into this industry in 1987.

The first was The Savings and Loan crisis of 1989 (remember Bank of New England) which was fraught with fraud – headlines read, “The Greatest Ever Bank Robbery” and “The S&L Crooks Inside the Executive Walls”. During that time, 1000 banks failed for a cost of $160 billion dollars, of which you and I, the taxpayers, footed 75% of the bill. The second was the tech bubble of 2000 with the shenanigans by S&P 500 darlings, Enron, WorldCom, and Tyco. The behavior of management from each of these companies went well beyond financial malfeasance. One would think an old song written by Ian Dury in 1977 was the theme song for these companies! The third was the famous financial crisis of 2008 & 2009. During this time, 465 banks went out of business, costing the taxpayer over $200 billion. However, I argue the cost is much higher due to inflation which is a side effect of easy money for way too long! All of these issues were exposed in the same way. As the Fed moved from easy money to raising rates, the bad actors could no longer hide.

Silicon Valley Bank executives telegraphed what was coming when several in high ranks, including the CEO, CFO, and corporate attorney, were selling hordes of stock in February – never have I seen such large amounts sold so quickly by insiders. Second, the day before the bank was taken over by the Feds, they paid themselves a handsome bonus.   This behavior clearly shows they knew the extent of their losses and the extent of their risk. 

I am being asked by many, what should the Fed do next? Despite my feeling that some equilibrium is important and a normalization of rates in the long-term is important for the well-being of our economy, I do feel the Fed must watch its next move VERY carefully. I am of the belief that if they choose to tighten at this time, it would be an intentional move to break our system. While I know such a statement is extreme, the truth is, I have been saying this for the last several months, and my biggest concern appears to be coming true.

I am being asked by many, what should I do? I must confess, what frustrates me even more is that the regulatory bodies and our lawmakers create new regulations to prevent such things from happening again, only to diminish these stop gaps over time or worse yet chuck them out altogether. I have asked myself over and again, who are these people really working for? Because it is clear, it is not for you or me. The best we all can do is to begin to hold our leaders accountable for their lack of leadership. I suggest you read beyond the headlines, beyond mainstream media, and straight into the bills being reviewed. This is the only way to get unbiased, untainted information as to what is true and what is a falsehood. It is my sincere belief that together, being informed, and making our voices heard with power rather than force is our best foot forward.

Please watch for our latest video here as it speaks to our current viewpoint and positioning. Paul explained one of the reasons there are issues with these few banks had to do with long-dated bonds. As depositors demanded their money, they had to sell these bonds at a loss due to higher rates. While this is true, I stated there is something else at play and indeed there are truths unfolding now. Stay tuned.

 

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Best regards,

The Willow Team
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