Green Matters – September 28, 2020

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greenmatters

Insights for the conscious investor.

September 28th, 2020

Tech & Innovation: Unlimited possibility; the good, the bad, the transformative. 

 

Solutions: Don’t doubt human ingenuity.

  • Give everybody the internet (vox) 

  • Scientists have figured out how to capture energy from a gentle breeze (gizmodo)

 

Markets & Economy: The dismal science. 

  • Understanding stakeholder value: where do profits come from? (intrinsicinvesting)

  • Why reaching for yield often ends badly (financialbodyguard) 

  • Attention is back on the “Vampire Squid” (felderreport) 

  • You’re stuck at home, drinking a ton of tea—and prices are rising (wsj) 

  • Analysis: Going carbon neutral by 2060 ‘will make China richer’ (carbonbrief)

 

Trends by Generation: History is seasonal. 

  • 38% of Americans (and more than 50% of Millennials & Gen Z) are currently boycotting at least one company that doesn’t align with their values (comparecards)

  • Cash is history. Welcome to the digital-payment future (barrons)

  • Get ready for more Spotify podcasts to become TV shows and movies (engadget) 

  • Beyond the pandemic, libraries look toward a new era (nyt) 

  • Meet Gen N: how COVID has created a more conscious consumer (fastcompany)

 

Crypto & Digital Currency: A digital revolution. 

  • Federally chartered banks may engage in certain stablecoin activities (occ) 

  • Ethereum gas explained: digital, carbon free “oil” (defiprime) 

  • Legislation proposes that each American have an account at the Fed in which digital dollars could be deposited (clevelandfed) 

  • A Bitcoin ETF finally launches…in Bermuda (decrypt)

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About this newsletter:
This newsletter is curated by professional financial advisors, wealth managers and market researchers at Willow Investments for Loving Change. We sift through the daily noise to find nuggets of emerging trends and developments in our ever-changing world, focusing on the intersection of capitalism, consciousness and social & environmental justice. How these worlds converge directs the course of our future. One way we can make loving change is to share what we are discovering. www.investwithwillow.com
 
          

Disclaimer: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This newsletter is for general informational purposes only. All information is provided in good faith, however we make no guarantee regarding the accuracy of any information contained herein. Please review our Privacy Policy, Disclaimer and Terms of Use & Conditions for more information. 

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Green Matters – September 21, 2020

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greenmatters

Insights for the conscious investor.

September 21st, 2020

Corporate Social & Environmental Responsibility: Time for an overhaul.

  • Investors that manage US$47tn demand world’s biggest polluters back plan for net-zero emissions (The Guardian)

  • CEO of PayPal says capitalism needs an upgrade (Fortune)

  • Redefining the word “success” in business (Fast Company)

  • Webinar: 3 things all conscious capitalists should be focused on today (sept 22) (conscious capitalism)
     

Markets & Economy: The dismal science. 

  • West Coast Freight Networks ‘Bursting at the Seams’ With Surging Imports (WSJ)

  • Why Everything Is Sold Out: The pandemic broke online shopping. (The Atlantic)
     

Small Business: The life blood of our economy. 

  • The Big Corporate Rescue and the America That’s Too Small to Save (ProPublica) 

  • Local Economic Impact Report: Business Closures Continue to Increase Nationally (Yelp)

  • $2.5 trillion per year “reverse distributed” from working class to elite (Fast Company)
     

Cryptocurrency: A digital revolution. 

  • Kraken just won approval to create America’s first crypto bank (FXStreet)

  • More than $1B in Bitcoin has been tokenized on Ethereum for DeFi (Cointelegraph) 

 
Carbon, Climate, and the Environment: The not so silent crisis.

  • Climate Change Will Force a New American Migration (Propublica) 

  • The Arctic Is Shifting to a New Climate State, Scientists Find (Yale) 

  • How Climate Migration Will Reshape America: Millions will be displaced. Where will they go? (NYT) 

 

Odd Lots: A little bit of this, a little bit of that, a little bit of oh that’s interesting… 

  • The philosophy of bullsh*t (big think)

  • Why efficiency is dangerous and slowing down makes life better (pysche)

  • The dark side of smart: manipulative communication is all around us (nautilus)

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About this newsletter:
This newsletter is curated by professional financial advisors, wealth managers and market researchers at Willow Investments for Loving Change. We sift through the daily noise to find nuggets of emerging trends and developments in our ever-changing world, focusing on the intersection of capitalism, consciousness and social & environmental justice. How these worlds converge directs the course of our future. One way we can make loving change is to share what we are discovering. www.investwithwillow.com
 
          

Disclaimer: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This newsletter is for general informational purposes only. All information is provided in good faith, however we make no guarantee regarding the accuracy of any information contained herein. Please review our Privacy Policy, Disclaimer and Terms of Use & Conditions for more information. 

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Market Update September 2020

Alex & Paul discuss markets

September 2020

Alexandra and Paul share a post-summer market and economy update in the video below. In this update, they discuss economic highlights, market analysis, outlook of market risk indicators and current strategy decisions specifically for Willow clients.

Play Video

Market Update Summary (Sept 2020):

  • COVID-19 continues to impact the economy, though number of deaths continues to come down.
  • Our biggest concern for the economy related to COVID-19 is the small business sector. Data continues to show that small business has not fully bounced back yet and will likely take a while to come back online. Small business revenue is holding around 10-20% down. 
  • Regarding employment, we’re seeing about 48% recovery of job losses. Part-time job recovery continues to be stronger than full-time job recovery.
  • Our proprietary index for giving us a pulse on consumer health (which makes up 70% of the market) shows the consumer has not yet recovered to pre-COVID levels, although Fed intervention has prevented consumer health from dipping as low as it did in the Great Recession (2007-2009). The Fed has currently purchased about 1/3 of all mortgages to keep that sector propped up.
  • The US Dollar continues to weaken, as we’ve been following and predicting for many years. Gold has reached a new multi-year high as investors flee for security.
  • We believe the current conditions are signaling potential stagflation – higher prices, weaker economy, potential recession.
  • Inflation expectations continue to be built into the markets.You might be personally seeing this in retail price increases as well as increases in education, health care, fees, taxes, etc.
  • The news of market rally and all-time highs has to be seen through the lens of market breath, where it’s clear that the majority of companies are not hitting highs. Our technical analysis of the market has us watching out for a bull trap and we predict we are approaching a slow topping of the market.
  • Our proprietary market dashboard is flashing concerns in the areas of earnings and revenue across many sectors (except healthcare and technology).
  • We continue to invest strategically in strong sectors (technology, healthcare, communication) and along our themes, which include the stay-at-home economy (technology, healthcare, communication), the weakening US dollar & ongoing price increases (pointing to utilities, consumer staples) and market alternatives like gold, cryptocurrency and land-focused real estate.

As we head towards autumn in these unprecedented times, we thank you for your continued trust and confidence. We diligently track market conditions and future economic outlooks so we can position our clients as strategically as possible, and we always strive to offer helpful, friendly and competent service customized to your needs.  To set up a meeting to discuss your portfolio, please click here or give us a call.

Best regards,
The Willow Team
+1 413 236 2980

Green Matters – September 14, 2020

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greenmatters

Insights for the conscious investor.

September 14th, 2020

Tech & Innovation: Robots, AI, oh my! 

  • AI and real life: department of energy announces the first five consortium (microsoft) 
  • Robots, oh my; the fear of robots displacing workers has returned (economist)
  • Root AI raises $7.2m seed round to deploy its harvesting robot amid covid-19-fueled demand (techcrunch)
  • AI coming for your words (technologyreview)

 

Cryptocurrency: The digital revolution continues. 

  • Blockchain for decentralized finance (defi) (consensys)
  • The multitude of ethereum use cases for enterprise (eea) 
  • Bitcoin now world’s sixth largest currency (decrypt)
  • Podcast: digital currencies from central banks could change money as you know it (cnbc)

 

Carbon, Climate, and the Environment: The not-so-silent crisis.

  • Solar and wind accounted for over two-thirds of new global installed capacity in 2019 (pvbuzz) 
  • New federal report warns of climate change’s impact to financial markets (nyt)
  • Ice-sheet losses track high-end sea-level rise projections (nature)
  • Interactive map shows key places that must be protected to curb climate change (fast company)

 

Social Justice, Diversity, & Ethics: No more tradeoffs.

  • Jane Fraser to become first woman CEO of a major US bank (cnbc)
  • Calling on companies to disclose workplace racial demographics, not just make statements (justcapital)
  • Parents got more time off. Then the backlash started (nyt)
  • Workers’ rights ratings: Not so good for US (bloomberg)

 

Sustainable Investing: Align your dollars with the rest of your life.

  • Latest research from Harvard finds ESG outperforms long-term and in market downturns (cio)
  • Podcast: can we get ESG investing right? (greentechmedia)
  • US Department of Labor trying to block ESG investing in 401k plans due to pressure from fossil fuel industry (bloomberg)
  • The ESG megatrend meets green bonds (visualcapitalist) 

 

Solutions: Don’t doubt human ingenuity.

  • Teenagers tell us the answers are in our ability to pause (tedxlincoln)
  • Another solution proposal by E2, 860,000 clean energy stimulus jobs (pvbuzz)
  • As tourism sector plans reopening, beautiful Bawah Reserve hailed as model of more thoughtful tourism (sustainable brands)
  • Power, Profits and the Pandemic: new report proposes an economy that works for all (oxfam)

 

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About this newsletter:
This newsletter is curated by professional financial advisors, wealth managers and market researchers at Willow Investments for Loving Change. We sift through the daily noise to find nuggets of emerging trends and developments in our ever-changing world, focusing on the intersection of capitalism, consciousness and social & environmental justice. How these worlds converge directs the course of our future. One way we can make loving change is to share what we are discovering. www.investwithwillow.com
 
          

Disclaimer: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This newsletter is for general informational purposes only. All information is provided in good faith, however we make no guarantee regarding the accuracy of any information contained herein. Please review our Privacy Policy, Disclaimer and Terms of Use & Conditions for more information. 

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Green Matters – September 7, 2020

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greenmatters

Insights for the conscious investor.

September 7th, 2020

Corporate Social & Environmental Responsibility: It’s time to step up.

  • Redefining “Business as Usual”: A webinar on stakeholder capitalism (Sept 14, 2020) (SOCAP)

  • Reimagining a world where CEOs have moral obligation to every human being who works for them (TED Talk)

  • Remaking capitalism, B-Corps (ConsciousCompany)

  • Substantial increase in sustainability reporting regulations around the world  (3blmedia)

Tech & Innovation: Unlimited possibility; the good, the bad, the transformative. 

  • The future Is coming: The technology revolution of the roaring 2020s (Yadeni) 

  • Visualizing the social media universe in 2020  (VisualCapitalist)

  • How technology moves from disruption to invisibility (Ritholtz) 

  • The four internets: the US vs. the EU vs. India vs. China (Stratechery)

  • The ingredients for innovation (FarnamStreet)

Trends by Generation: History is seasonal. 

  • New Yorkers are fleeing to the suburbs: ‘the demand is insane’ (NYT)

  • Generation work-from-home may never recover (the Atlantic)

  • Gen Z pushing brands to do better (PublicGoods)

  • How financial services will be more commonly embedded into other businesses (Medium)

  • ESG investing is winning the popularity contest among millennials, gen Z (ETFTrends)

Social Justice, Diversity, & Ethics: No more tradeoffs.

  • Female-managed funds outperform all male rivals (MarketWatch)

  • Visualizing the racial wealth gap (VisualCapitalist)  

  • The child-care crisis punishes women in health care (Washington Post)

  • The age of Corporate Social Justice (HBR)

Solutions: Don’t doubt human ingenuity.

  • UN Advisor: Divert national military budgets to climate change and UN sustainability programmes (Watts)

  • Universal basic income seems to improve employment and well-being (NewScientist)

  • Children raised near greener areas have higher IQs, study finds(BigThink) 

Odd Lots: A little bit of this, a little bit of that, a little bit of oh that’s interesting… 

  • The financial therapists helping wealthy people cope with change (FT)

  • Inside the company trying to solve the global bicycle shortage (Marker)

  • Watch US transportation trends as they evolve (QuiverQuant)

  • The ruining of assumptions: digital interconnectedness, labor shifts, pax Americana, and media consolidation (CollaborativeFund)

Would you like to get this newsletter right in your inbox every Monday? Sign up below!

About this newsletter:
This newsletter is curated by professional financial advisors, wealth managers and market researchers at Willow Investments for Loving Change. We sift through the daily noise to find nuggets of emerging trends and developments in our ever-changing world, focusing on the intersection of capitalism, consciousness and social & environmental justice. How these worlds converge directs the course of our future. One way we can make loving change is to share what we are discovering. www.investwithwillow.com
 
          

Disclaimer: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This newsletter is for general informational purposes only. All information is provided in good faith, however we make no guarantee regarding the accuracy of any information contained herein. Please review our Privacy Policy, Disclaimer and Terms of Use & Conditions for more information. 

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Willow Risk Monitor – Sept 2020

The Willow Risk Monitor July 2020
Willow Risk Monitor September 2020

Welcome to the September 2020 overview edition of the Willow Risk Monitor, where we share our analysis of the level of risk in the current market across a variety of metrics. We also explain our thinking on how we look at and assess overall market risk, and we will often highlight what the data shows compared to what you might be hearing in the news.

Please contact us if you have any questions or if there is something you’d like more detail about. We welcome your feedback!

To learn more about the premium version of the Willow Risk Monitor, click here.

Consumer Health (proprietary algorithm)
looking at consumer health

Our Consumer Health Index included several metrics focused on consumer sentiment and confidence, which have rebounded from their lows but have not yet been able to catch up to pre-COVID levels.  While markets have a direct impact on consumer confidence, along with housing data (which for individuals out of cities has been fantastic), high levels of unemployment, wage stagnation, and uncertainty around the election and if a second COVID wave will materialize have continued to weigh this index down.

Manufacturing Health (proprietary algorithm)
looking at manufacturing
how we look at manufacturing

The rebound continues in the manufacturing space, and our indicators are showing a fast paced return to the mean. The degree of steepness in both drop and “recovery” makes sense when viewed through the lens that this was due to an intentional shut down of the economy and not due to outright structural issues (though those are still very much present) in manufacturing. Cost cutting, restructuring, increased automation all plays a role here. Overall, it is a positive sign, for now.

Market Volatility (proprietary algorithm)
looking at volatility

Our Willow Volatility Average examines several indices that track volatility, or the implied moves in asset prices over the next thirty days. Just recently this index has started to tick up. With the election looming, schools reopening, geopolitical tension rising, traders returning from vacation, and overall uncertainty on rise, especially around policy, it makes sense that this indicator would start flashing. While way off its March highs, our Volatility Average has been relatively flat for the past month but remains at a historically elevated level. The recent up-tick has us paying attention.

Credit Default Swaps
looking at credit default swaps
how we look at CDS

Credit default swap spreads have, for the most part, tightened back to pre-COVID levels which indicates markets believe the risk of defaults has come down considerably. High yield credit default swaps which shine a light on more riskier companies remains elevated still, but no where near its March peak.der the spread between it and its US Treasury counterpart. While overall most of these spreads have returned to pre-COVID levels, they still remain slightly elevated and may be starting to rise in some areas.

Bond Spreads
looking at bond spreads
how we look at bonds

We look at bond spreads (the difference in interest rates between “risk free” or US Government bonds and different grades of corporate bonds) to show us how markets are gauging risk in lending to corporations. The riskier a bond is the wider the spread between it and its US Treasury counterpart. While overall most of these spreads have returned to pre-COVID levels, they still remain slightly elevated and may be starting to rise in some areas.

As always, be well and please feel free to reach out with any questions, comments or concerns.

Best regards,

The Willow Team
+1 413 236 2980

ADCM, LLC dba Willow does not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction. Although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.  Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities.